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MONTHLY ECONOMIC REVIEW NOVEMBER 2005 |
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VIII 1. Overview Overall
in November, the financial sector sentiments remained mixed. During the
month the stock markets regained their bullishness after facing a
correction in October wherein the samvat 2062 began with the BSE sensex
touching the 8000 mark in intra-day trades during the muharat session.
As the FIIs continue to aggressively invest in the Indian bourses, the
BSE sensex touched an all-time high of 9000 in intra-day trades.
However, the equity derivatives market saw the notional turnover decline
in the month of November and the nifty futures towards the end of the
month ruled at a premium to NSE nifty. Among the derivatives, the
options continued to languish as an instrument of investment, which
coerced the Sebi to form an expert committee to investigate the reasons.
Also, the debt market remained cautious on account of the stressed
liquidity situations, which arose due to outflows on account of festive
seasons, higher credit offtake and foreign currencies outflows.
Nevertheless, the primary corporate debt mobilisations from the market
were better than those in the previous month. In the forex market, the
rupee continued to depreciate against the dollar as the Capital
Markets: Primary
equity Market: There
have been seven issues (IPO) in November from various sectors. The one
by the AIA engineering was the first public issue under the new
allotment norms that were prescribed by Sebi with effect from September
19. In case of the public
offer of Pyramid Retail as per the data put out by NSE, no bids have
been tendered by FIIs in this category, as they are not allowed to
invest in retail sector. Among the issuers that tapped the market this
month, the highest issue has been of Triveni Engineering &
Industries Ltd, followed by ABG shipyard Ltd (Table
8.1)
Despite the ongoing bull run in the cash markets, the prices of many of public offers made in the recent past have fallen below the issue price or ruling around it. This has raised the question of pricing of shares by companies, as it appears that some of them are overvaluing their shares. For instances: Bannari Anman, HT Media and Gujarat Industries Power Company Limited. During April-October 2005, the total amount of resources mobilised through 62 issues was lower at Rs 9,386 crore as compared to Rs 16, 753 crore mobilised through 28 issues in the corresponding period last year. Secondary
Market: The stock markets continued to be buoyant after having undergone a correction in October with the BSE sensex touching the all-time of 9000 mark before closing the month at 8788 points after gaining about 897 points over the month. The Nifty also increased by 513.8 points to 2386.75 on November 01,2005 from 1872.95 on November 12,2004. Despite this buoyancy, the total turnover on NSE has fallen from Rs 120,810 crore in October to Rs 109,569 crore in November. Also, the number of trades has been lower in November as compared to October. The market capitalisation over the month has increased from Rs 1,927,645 crore on October 31 to Rs 2,166,823 crore on November 30, an increase of Rs 239,178 crore in a span of one month. The top 5 most traded securities during the month accounted for 26 per cent of the total trading volume. While, the shares of top ’10’ and ‘100’ securities in the total trading volume during the month has been 38 per cent and 84 per cent, respectively. (Table 8.2).
The BSE market capitalisation has increased to Rs. 21,31,384 core on November 01,2005 from Rs. 14,12,991 crore on November 12,2004. BSE sensex has increased by 1980.09 points to 7944.1 on November 01,2005 from 5964.1 on November 12,2004.
The
FIIs have not only reversed the trend in October and their cumulative
investment during April-November exceeded the level touched in
April-September; their net investment in November stood at Rs 4,039
crore with purchases to the extent of Rs 23,086 crore and sales of Rs
19,047 crore. Their net investment in terms of dollar stood at US $
8,592 million in April-September, which fell by 841 million in October
that in turn increased to $8,654 million.
Net
FII inflows into the equity markets at Rs20, 773 crore in the first half
of 2005-06 has been the highest ever in the first six-months of any
financial year. A study by Business Standard based on BSE 500 index
companies shows that FIIs bought 478 million shares of 271 companies in
April-June 2005 while in second quarter of the current fiscal, they have
bought 872 million shares of 314 companies and sold 215 million shares
of 132 companies. The
mutual funds too have continued to remain net buyers of equities but
only to the extent of Rs 581 crore in November as compared to Rs 3,020
crore in October. An analysis of companies included in BSE sensex shows that financial performance does not get reflected in the stock price movements. Rather they moved in diverse directions. For instance, profits of cement companies like Grasim Industries and Gujarat Ambuja Cement dipped 25 per cent and 48 per cent, respectively, in the second quarter compared to the first, but their stock prices have gone up by 25 per cent and 30 per cent in the corresponding period. Similarly, the profits of NTPC declined by 11 per cent, while its stock price rose by 28 per cent over the same period. In
an effort to ensure faster action against any irregularities, Sebi is
considering installing an integrated market surveillance system, thus
enabling the regulator to keep a check on trading throughout the day.
As a part of efforts to curb intra-day volatility in share prices, Sebi has announced a separate ‘block deal window’ on NSE and BSE to execute such big deals transparently within half-an-hour of morning trade. Block deals on both the NSE and BSE have to be traded on a separate window that would be available for the first 30 minutes of the trading day with effect from November 14. It is expected that this would encourage transparency and also ensure that block deals entered between institutional parties do not in any manner disrupt the working of the normal market. Earlier, block deals were part of the normal market and there was a potential that such deals could disrupt the normal market process. The Sebi has said that no charges shall be levied by a depository on a depository participant (DP) and consequently, by a DP on a beneficiary owner (BO). Thus when a BO transfers all the securities lying in his account to another branch of the same DP or to another DP of the same depository or another depository, it will be free of cost, provided the BO accounts at transferee DP and at transferor DP are one and the same to the extent that they are identical. The government may allow FIIs to buy securities issued by asset reconstruction companies (ARCs) – they are the companies that buy bad loans from lenders and try to recover them. Recently, the government allowed FDI in ARCs up to 49 per cent. In view of attracting the Indian companies to list on London Stock Exchange, a Professional Securities Market has come up under which the companies will be allowed to use Indian accounting standards instead of traditional European Securities law. This will help LSE counter aggressive marketing by US-based exchanges and attract companies looking to raising funds through GDRs rather than ADRs. The government and RBI have agreed to allow FII to acquire upto 49 per cent of he security receipts issued by asset reconstruction companies. There would be a sub-limit of 10 per cent on individual FII holdings. For this the necessary changes would be carried out to the Foreign Exchange Management Act Regulations. Regulations: The government is considering phasing out the participatory notes issued to unregulated entities within three years instead of five years as allowed at present on the basis of the recommendation of an internal policy paper on streamlining the FII investment. The government is also expected to work out a list of tax havens to ensure that dubious funds do not reach the domestic stock markets Sebi has sought powers to file winding up petitions in respect of intermediary companies and attach their bank accounts, share information with overseas regulators, constitute review and enforcement committees and suspend penalties. Regulators have sought the standing committee intervention to amend the Act. These additional powers should be on lines of the section 45 MC of the RBI Act, 1934 and section 43A of Banking Regulation Act, 1949. In a bid to encourage more investors to hold securities in the demat form, the SEBI has waived demat charges except the statutory ones with effect from January 9, 2006. S&P CNX Defty index is S&P CNX nifty, measured in US dollar terms. Currently Defty is computed based on nifty index and end of previous day Exchange Rate (US $-Re). The same exchange rate is used for computation of defty index value during trading hours. It is proposed to compute defty index value based on Real time Exchange Rate (US $-Re) with effect from 14th November 2005. Sebi is considering re-introducing “Mapin” (Market Participants and Investor database) but without the requirement for fingerprinting of market participants. Unlike the earlier system, the new method based on alternative system using new software called “dedupe” as suggested by the committee under the chairmanship of Jagdish Capoor. The Sebi has said that the strategic sale of a stock exchange to a company or an individual would be illegal. The dilution of stake can be done only through an IPO so that the shareholding is broadbased. Some of the brokers and merchant bankers apprehend that this would derail the process of corporatisation and demutualisation of stock exchanges like BSE and Delhi Stock Exchange (DSE). A high –powered internal group has been formed by Sebi to draft guidelines on several important issues related to corporatisation and demutaulisation of stock exchanges. The group will examine the process of divesting 51 per cent stake, a pre-condition for all bourses where C&D scheme has been formulated by the regulator. The
Sebi has said that the listed entities could face stiff penalties
including de-listing from the stock exchanges if they do not comply with
corporate governance norms by the year-end. The Sebi chairman also ruled
out any dilution or extension of the December 31 deadline for companies
to abide by the revised clause 49 of the listing agreement, which says
that at least 50 per cent of directors in a listed company board should
be independent. Movements
in Index: In November, all the stock indices saw a reversal of the trend observed in October as they continued their rising trend after undergoing a correction. The BSE sensex registered a gain of 11.4 per cent after having fallen by 8.6 per cent in October, similarly, the S&P CNX nifty rose by 11.9 per cent after having fallen by 8.9 per cent in the previous month. Among the sectoral indices of BSE, the highest gains have been recorded by consumer durables index followed by capital goods (Table 8.3). As compared to the gains recorded by BSE sensex, the BSE mid-cap registered somewhat lower gains at 10.7 per cent while BSE small cap rose by 12.4 per cent.
Among the different indices of NSE, Bank nifty recorded a gain of 7.35 per cent after having fallen by 13.4 per cent in October and CNX IT fell by 3 per cent in October, but rose by 10 per cent in November (Table 8.4)
Despite the increase in volatility in the cash market, the derivatives notional turnover has fallen from Rs 43,3651 crore in October to Rs 3,95,845 crore in November. As usual, futures contributed to bulk of derivative trading constituting 89 per cent of the total, the remaining being option turnover (Table 8.5). In view of such a lower level of trading in options, Sebi has set up a group of experts to examine the impediments to the growth of options trading in India, though options have a great potential as a derivative instrument, it has been less popular as compared to futures. As
per the data put out by NSE for the period during May-October 2005, the
total derivatives turnover has continued to rise over this period but
the share of of open interest to daily average traded value has been
moving randomly. It rose from 171 per cent in May to 176 per cent in
June, then fell to 145 per cent in July but rose to 155 per cent in
September but fell again to 129 per cent in October. Also, for the first
time since the inception of the F&O segment on NSE, it has recorded
more than three times the turnover of cash segment in October 2005.
Regulations: Ahmedabad Stock Exchange has sought for the F & O segment, trading rights from Sebi, in order to ramp up its trading capacity in derivative market. ASE will be incorporated as Limited Company on December 14,2005. 2.
Debt Market: Call
Market: The month of November began with call money market rates ruling above the repo rate of 5.25 per cent due to the carryover of liquidity strain arising from subdued foreign currency flows and anticipations of festival cash demand. The situation continued upto the third week of the month, by which time, series of RBI interventions to improve liquidity accompanied by inflows due to the redemptions and coupon payments helped the call rates to slide from the hump. Even so, they ruled above the reverse repo (lending) rate of 5.25 per cent throughout the month. Repo
under RBI’s LAF: Reverse
Repos and Repos, Given the stressed liquidity situation, there was a precipitate fall in the size of reverse repo bids (absorbing funds from the market) tendered to a little more than in the previous month; aggregate bids amounted to Rs 83,505 crore in November as against Rs.3, 74,740 crore in October.
Also,
with a view to easing liquidity, RBI accepted repo bids (injection
of liquidity) to the extent of Rs 17,065 crore. In the week ending
November 4, the reverse repo bids worth Rs 33,710 crore were tendered.
The next week ending November 11, due to the outflows on account of the
festive season and central loan floatation, the reverse repo bids fell
to Rs 18,995 crore and RBI injected liquidity to the extent of Rs 7,815
crore. In the week ending
November 18, the size of bids tendered fell further to Rs 2,220 crore,
while RBI had to inject liquidity to the extent of Rs 9,250 crore. By
the end of the month, normalcy was restored in the liquidity situation
and as a result, the aggregate reverse repo bids tendered in the week
ending November 25 rose to Rs 28,580 crore and also no repo bids were
tendered. The
RBI introduced a second Liquidity Adjustment Facility (SLAF) with effect
from November 28. SLAF will be conducted on all working days except
Saturdays and these bids will be received between 3.00 pm and 3.45 pm;
the normal LAF is carried in the forenoon hours.
Government
securities market: Primary
Market: Dated
Securities Despite the pressure on liquidity and despite the RBI having to cancel MSS floatations, the government continued with its scheduled borrowing program by mobilising an aggregate amount of Rs 13,000 crore albeit by offering higher yields. In the first instance, the government tapped the market on November 8 to mobilise an aggregate amount of Rs 8,000 crore through re-issues of 7.49 per cent 2017 and 7.40 per cent 2035 for notified amounts of Rs 5,000 crore and Rs 3,000 crore, respectively, both through price-based auctions using multiple price method. For the 30-year paper, the yield has been set at 7.73 per cent, while in its first re-issuance in October the yield had been set at 7.66 per cent and in its issuance the paper was auctioned in September at 7.40 per cent. In
the second instance, the government re-issued 8.35 per cent 2022 for a
notified amount of Rs 5,000 crore through price-based auction using
multiple price method. For this, 344 competitive bids worth Rs 14,017
crore were received, of which 11 bids for Rs 4,944.20 crore have been
accepted at a cut-off yield of 7.43 per cent.
On
November 17, Andhra Pradesh state government auctioned 10-year state
development loan for a notified amount of Rs 375 crore through
yield-based auction using multiple price method. For this, 98 bids worth
Rs 1786 crore were received, of which, 3 bids for Rs 375 crore have been
accepted at a cut-off yield of 7.34 per cent. When SDLs were auctioned
by some state governments in September, the cut-off yields accepted were
in the range of 7.42-7.50 per cent.
Treasury Bills: In the recent period, the MSS auctions have taken the form of TB issues, and hence with a view to supporting liquidity in the system, the RBI had to do it by cancelling the MSS auctions under all the three treasury bills: the notified amounts cancelled were of Rs 1,500 crore under 91-day TBs, Rs 1000 crore under 182-day bills and Rs 10,000 crore for 364-day bills.
In November, with the deadline for compliance to Basel–II approaching, the banks have been taping the corporate debt market specifically to keep their capital adequacy ratios well above the stipulated regulatory 9 per cent. Thus, despite the prevalent liquidity crunch in the domestic debt market and rising short–term interest rates, the total amount of funds mobilised rose to Rs. 2,443 crore (by 6 issuers) in November as against Rs. 900 crore (by 4 issuers) in October. Notably,
for the first time in this financial year the State Bank of Interestingly, Kerala Transport Development Finance Corporation Limited –a state government undertaking tapped the market to mobilise a meagre amount of Rs. 43 crore at a coupon rate of 7.25 per cent for a tenure of 5 years as against 6.85 per cent which it had offered for a similar maturity paper in September 2004, despite enjoying same rating of ‘ A- (SO) by Care on both the occasions. In a major step to widen the debt market as well as to promote the investments in the housing sectors, the government has proposed to let the mortgage–based securities be traded as listed securities in the stock market. However, for this the definition of securities as currently stated in the Securities Contract (Regulations) Act, 1956 needs to be amended. The Cabinet has recently given its approval to amend the Securities Contract (Regulations) Act, 1956; the proposed amendment includes securitised debt under the definition of “securities”, thereby bringing the securitised debt to the mainstream of capital markets. It is expected that this increase in the availability of different instruments to invest in would in turn lead to more liquidity to the market. Further, with the possibility of the amendment providing for the listing of Pass–Through–Certificates (PTCs), the PSU banks which are currently restricted in investing in securitised debt due to the 10 per cent limit on investment in unlisted paper will have additional investment opportunities. Securitisation is a process whereby a large number of loans are aggregated or bundled by a lender, only to be disaggregated or unbundled into smaller debts which are in turn sold to investors in form of notes, representing a claim on underlying debt. A mortgage pass–through security or simply a mortgage pass–through is backed by a pool of mortgages whose monthly payments are the sole source cash flow of the security. The security is called the ‘pass–through ‘ because monthly payments generated from the underlying pool of mortgages are ‘passed’ from mortgagors ‘ through’ the issuer to investors in the security. Since pass through are backed by pools of mortgages, they are generically called mortgage–backed securities. Secondary
Market: In
November, the overall scenario of the money and government
securities market remained one of caution as the pressure on
liquidity was compounded by huge demand for bank funds on account of the
festive season. Outflows on account of central and state loan
floatations, improved credit-offtake and persistent foreign currency
outflows since October were the primary causes for the
liquidity strain. The weekly average for secondary market turnover for
gilt-edged securities gyrated throughout the month. Responding to the
underlying liquidity scenario, the yield curve was pushed upwards across
maturity from the week ending November 4 to 11; it remained around it
for the next week ending November 18. In the last week, while the
short-term rates remained sticky, the medium and long-term rates eased,
thereby flattening the yield curve. 3.
Foreign Exchange Market The
rupee-dollar exchange in November has been influenced by a variety of
factors leading to a depreciation of about 76 paise over the month,
wherein it touched a low of Rs 45.99. These includes movement of dollar
against the other currencies notably, yen and the Euro in expectation of
continuation of monetary tightening in the US in the face of outflow of
foreign currency assets in the country, huge demand for dollars from
importers as the rupee is deprecating to many months low, also, demand
for dollars in anticipation of the redemption of India millennium bonds
(IMB) in December, and most
significantly RBI’s muted intervention and comments by the finance
minister, tacitly approving the depreciation of the rupee. Overall in
effective terms, while the new indices are yet to be released
indications are that rupee has remained upvalued by about a per cent on
NEER basis and around 9 per cent on REER basis
The forward market remained impervious of the volatility of the spot rupee and continued to rise throughout the month as the interest rate differential narrowed following the yet another hike in the US Fed rate. Among the tenures, during period under review the one-month ruled above the six-month and three months. 4.
Commodities Futures Market: Given the nature of much of trading, commodity futures in November, the total turnover of the commodity exchanges all over the country registered some decline from Rs. 189,235.37 crore in October to Rs. 188,717.75 crore. It is considered that at least 20-25 per cent is due to round tripping, that is, circulation of trades. The total turnover of the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Ltd (NCDEX) continued its upward trend as it rose to Rs. 101,860 crore in November from Rs. 101,561 crore in the previous month. Also, MCX witnessed a marginal decline to Rs 76235 crore from Rs 76,309 in the previous month. Together, these two exchanges account for almost 94 per cent of the total commodity exchanges turnover. Among the other exchanges, the total turnover of the Chamber of Commerce, Harpur also registered a marginal increase at Rs. 389 crore in November as compared with Rs. 385 crore in the previous month (Table 8.10). In
November, three commodities, viz, gold, gaur seed and urad
accounted for around 40 per cent of the
total commodities exchange’s turnover. Among them, both gold
and urad account for about 14 per cent each, while guar seed accounted
for 11 per cent.
The
leading Indian commodity exchanges have been increasingly going in for
tie-ups with foreign exchanges, for instance, Multi Commodity Exchange
of India Limited (MCX) recently entered into a licensing agreement with
London Metal Exchange to use LME prices as the basis for settling MCX
futures contracts. The agreement will initially apply to MCX contracts
for aluminium, tin and nickel in small lot sizes of 1 metric tonne.
Further, MCX has also signed an MOU with New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX);
this is expected to help Indian petroleum and petrochemical industries
to hedge their price risk more efficiently. National Commodity &
Derivatives Exchange Ltd (NCDEX) has tied up with International
Petroleum Exchange (IPE), Developments
in Commodity Futures: Since
November 17, 2005, NCDEX is displaying on its website a Road Freight
Index for As
a part of the on-going transformation of commodities trading, the
National Spot Exchange has started the electronic networking of all the
290 agricultural markets in With
a view to facilitate introduction of option trading in commodities as
well as to provide greater autonomy to the Forward Market Commission
(FMC), the government is set to put up a Bill to amend the Forward
Contracts (Regulation) Act, 1950. The amended law will provide for
setting up of a Forward Market Appellate Tribunal (FMAT) on the lines of
the Security Appellate Tribunal (SAT) set up under Sebi Act. The
latest directive from Forward Markets Commission (FMC) seeks to make it
mandatory for a market participant to indicate physical delivery intent
at least five days before maturity of the contract. However, the trader
may lose the opportunity to take full advantage of the price discovery
process through the online national commodity exchanges. This directive
comes into effect for all the contracts launched after November 01,2005.
Further the FMC has also sought to impose a penalty of 5 per cent of the
last trading day’s spot market average price in case of failure in
delivery. According to some market players, the move instead of
encouraging physical deliveries, it may well go against it. With surge in volumes on commodity exchanges, the FMC has tightened open position limits and price limits for 24 commodities with effect from November 20 for all the running contracts and new contracts. According to FMC, the limit on open positions for members and clients of the three national exchanges would be either the limit indicated by the regulator in each commodity or 20 per cent of the market –wide open position. The exchanges would be at the liberty to prescribe lower limits on open positions than those prescribed by FMC. FCI, though not yet a player in futures, has introduced third-party foodgrain quality audit and certification to reduce its storage losses and eliminate complaints regarding supply of substandard rice and wheat; the FCI has already signed a memorandum of under standing with the NCDEX for this purpose. FCI is considering futures trading in surplus grains for better price realisation, the primary objective of FCI is to ensure food grain security and act as a market stabiliser. It is looking at ways to trade food grain stocks that are surplus after meeting the PDS and buffer stock requirements on the commodity exchanges without compromising on any of our objectives BSE is tying up with seven leading regional commodity exchanges under the umbrella of the Federation of Commodity Exchanges (FICE) to launch a new nationwide commodity derivative exchange to provide a mutual platform for exchanges. The FMC has given in-principle approval the creation of the new exchange. 5.
Insurance Development
Activities The
government has launched a health insurance scheme for 3 lakh handloom
weavers and allied workers and their families across the country in
collaboration with ICICI Lombard. For subscribing to the scheme, the
weavers will have to contribute Rs.200, while the government will
contribute Rs.800 through the office of development commissioner. The
Life Insurance Council, the representative body for Indian life
insurance companies, along with Actuarial Society of India (ASI), has
floated a new company called Mortality and Morbidity Investigation
Bureau (MMIB), a 50:50 joint venture between the Council and ASI. MMIB
has been mandated with preparing a new mortality chart on the basis of
which life insurers will fix the premium for insurance policies. With
the increase in life expectancy, there is a need to upgrade the
mortality table to current levels. A new chart will result in a more
realistic premium calculation for new policies. At present, new private
life insurers base their calculations on the decade-old mortality table
prepared by LIC. In addition, the company will also prepare a morbidity
table — a set of figures which will indicate incidence and severity of
sicknesses and accidents in a defined classes or persons. At present,
there is no morbidity table, which enables correct pricing by insurers
for all new products. Currently, Indian insurers draw examples from the
international experience of reinsurance firms on critical illness. At a
later stage, MMIB will provide consultancy and data service to insurers
for a fee. It will initially work in technical collaboration with the
Continuous Mortality Investigation Bureau (CMIB) of the The
Ministry of Health and Family Welfare is considering establishing a task
force to develop a low-cost health insurance programme as part of the
National Rural Health Mission. As per the proposal, over 3,200 community
health centres in the country will be strengthened so that they can
provide basic healthcare to the masses. It is estimated that aggregate
household expenditure on healthcare during 2004-05 amounted to more than
Rs 1,00,000 crore (1 trillion) and therefore the strengthening of the
public health delivery system and the availability of a large number of
health workers will provide an opportunity to improve risk pooling
through the community-based health insurance.
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*These statistics and the accompanying review are a product arising from the work undertaken under the joint ICICI research centre.org-EPWRF Data Base Project. |
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