MONTHLY ECONOMIC REVIEW

 NOVEMBER 2005

 

VIII
FINANCIAL SECTOR

1. Overview

Overall in November, the financial sector sentiments remained mixed. During the month the stock markets regained their bullishness after facing a correction in October wherein the samvat 2062 began with the BSE sensex touching the 8000 mark in intra-day trades during the muharat session. As the FIIs continue to aggressively invest in the Indian bourses, the BSE sensex touched an all-time high of 9000 in intra-day trades. However, the equity derivatives market saw the notional turnover decline in the month of November and the nifty futures towards the end of the month ruled at a premium to NSE nifty. Among the derivatives, the options continued to languish as an instrument of investment, which coerced the Sebi to form an expert committee to investigate the reasons. Also, the debt market remained cautious on account of the stressed liquidity situations, which arose due to outflows on account of festive seasons, higher credit offtake and foreign currencies outflows. Nevertheless, the primary corporate debt mobilisations from the market were better than those in the previous month. In the forex market, the rupee continued to depreciate against the dollar as the US economy continued to strengthen and consequently the dollar firmed up, also there have been monetary tightening there. Moreover, there seems to be a conscious policy on the part of authorities to allow the rupee to depreciate. In the commodities futures market, as the prospects of domestic production improved there has been a fall in their turnover.

Capital Markets:

Primary equity Market:

There have been seven issues (IPO) in November from various sectors. The one by the AIA engineering was the first public issue under the new allotment norms that were prescribed by Sebi with effect from September 19.  In case of the public offer of Pyramid Retail as per the data put out by NSE, no bids have been tendered by FIIs in this category, as they are not allowed to invest in retail sector. Among the issuers that tapped the market this month, the highest issue has been of Triveni Engineering & Industries Ltd, followed by ABG shipyard Ltd (Table 8.1)

Table 8.1: Primary Issues During the Month of November.

Issuer

Date of Issuance

Price Band/Fixed Price

Book Size (Rs in Crore)

 

Opening

Closing

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Piramyd Retail Ltd

10-Nov

16-Nov

120-140

108

Bombay Rayon Fashions LTd

11-Nov

17-Nov

60-70

94

AIA Engineering Ltd

17-Nov

22-Nov

275-315

148

Triveni Engineering & Industries Ltd

18-Nov

25-Nov

42-50

250

Everest Kanto Cylinder Ltd

22-Nov

25-Nov

140-160

90

ABG Shipyard Ltd

18-Nov

26-Nov

155-185

157

Compulink System Ltd

25-Nov

30-Nov

60

27

Kernex Microsystems ( India ) Ltd

28-Nov

3-Dec

225-250

99

REPRO India Ltd

28-Nov

1-Dec

145-165

 

Source: Various Media Sources.

 

Despite the ongoing bull run in the cash markets, the prices of many of public offers made in the recent past have fallen below the issue price or ruling around it. This has raised the question of pricing of shares by companies, as it appears that some of them are overvaluing their shares. For instances: Bannari Anman, HT Media and Gujarat Industries Power Company Limited.

During April-October 2005, the total amount of resources mobilised through 62 issues was lower at Rs 9,386 crore as compared to Rs 16, 753 crore mobilised through 28 issues in the corresponding period last year.

Secondary Market:

The stock markets continued to be buoyant after having undergone a correction in October with the BSE sensex touching the all-time of 9000 mark before closing the month at 8788 points after gaining about 897 points over the month. The Nifty also increased by 513.8 points to 2386.75 on November 01,2005 from 1872.95 on November 12,2004. Despite this buoyancy, the total turnover on NSE has fallen from Rs 120,810 crore in October to Rs 109,569 crore in November. Also, the number of trades has been lower in November as compared to October. The market capitalisation over the month has increased from Rs 1,927,645 crore on October 31 to Rs 2,166,823 crore on November 30, an increase of Rs 239,178 crore in a span of one month.

The top 5 most traded securities during the month accounted for 26 per cent of the total trading volume. While, the shares of top ’10’ and ‘100’ securities in the total trading volume during the month has been 38 per cent and 84 per cent, respectively. (Table 8.2).

Table 8.2 : Contribution of Top 'N' Securities

(In per cent)

Top 'N' Securities.

2004-05

September-05

October 05.

5

26

18

26

10

42

27

38

25

58

45

57

50

72

59

71

100

84

74

84

Source: NSE Newsletters.

 

The BSE market capitalisation has increased to Rs. 21,31,384 core on November 01,2005 from Rs. 14,12,991 crore on November 12,2004. BSE sensex has increased by 1980.09 points to 7944.1 on November 01,2005 from 5964.1 on November 12,2004.

 

The FIIs have not only reversed the trend in October and their cumulative investment during April-November exceeded the level touched in April-September; their net investment in November stood at Rs 4,039 crore with purchases to the extent of Rs 23,086 crore and sales of Rs 19,047 crore. Their net investment in terms of dollar stood at US $ 8,592 million in April-September, which fell by 841 million in October that in turn increased to $8,654 million.  

Net FII inflows into the equity markets at Rs20, 773 crore in the first half of 2005-06 has been the highest ever in the first six-months of any financial year. A study by Business Standard based on BSE 500 index companies shows that FIIs bought 478 million shares of 271 companies in April-June 2005 while in second quarter of the current fiscal, they have bought 872 million shares of 314 companies and sold 215 million shares of 132 companies.

The mutual funds too have continued to remain net buyers of equities but only to the extent of Rs 581 crore in November as compared to Rs 3,020 crore in October.

An analysis of companies included in BSE sensex shows that financial performance does not get reflected in the stock price movements. Rather they moved in diverse directions. For instance, profits of cement companies like Grasim Industries and Gujarat Ambuja Cement dipped 25 per cent and 48 per cent, respectively, in the second quarter compared to the first, but their stock prices have gone up by 25 per cent and 30 per cent in the corresponding period. Similarly, the profits of NTPC declined by 11 per cent, while its stock price rose by 28 per cent over the same period.

In an effort to ensure faster action against any irregularities, Sebi is considering installing an integrated market surveillance system, thus enabling the regulator to keep a check on trading throughout the day.  

As a part of efforts to curb intra-day volatility in share prices, Sebi has announced a separate ‘block deal window’ on NSE and BSE to execute such big deals transparently within half-an-hour of morning trade. Block deals on both the NSE and BSE have to be traded on a separate window that would be available for the first 30 minutes of the trading day with effect from November 14. It is expected that this would encourage transparency and also ensure that block deals entered between institutional parties do not in any manner disrupt the working of the normal market. Earlier, block deals were part of the normal market and there was a potential that such deals could disrupt the normal market process.

The Sebi has said that no charges shall be levied by a depository on a depository participant (DP) and consequently, by a DP on a beneficiary owner (BO). Thus when a BO transfers all the securities lying in his account to another branch of the same DP or to another DP of the same depository or another depository, it will be free of cost, provided the BO accounts at transferee DP and at transferor DP are one and the same to the extent that they are identical.   

The government may allow FIIs to buy securities issued by asset reconstruction companies (ARCs) – they are the companies that buy bad loans from lenders and try to recover them. Recently, the government allowed FDI in ARCs up to 49 per cent. 

In view of attracting the Indian companies to list on London Stock Exchange, a Professional Securities Market has come up under which the companies will be allowed to use Indian accounting standards instead of traditional European Securities law.  This will help LSE counter aggressive marketing by US-based exchanges and attract companies looking to raising funds through GDRs rather than ADRs.

The government and RBI have agreed to allow FII to acquire upto 49 per cent of he security receipts issued by asset reconstruction companies. There would be a sub-limit of 10 per cent on individual FII holdings. For this the necessary changes would be carried out to the Foreign Exchange Management Act Regulations.

Regulations:

The government is considering phasing out the participatory notes issued to unregulated entities within three years instead of five years as allowed at present on the basis of the recommendation of an internal policy paper on streamlining the FII investment.   The government is also expected to work out a list of tax havens to ensure that dubious funds do not reach the domestic stock markets

Sebi has sought powers to file winding up petitions in respect of intermediary companies and attach their bank accounts, share information with overseas regulators, constitute review and enforcement committees and suspend penalties. Regulators have sought the standing committee intervention to amend the Act. These additional powers should be on lines of the section 45 MC of the RBI Act, 1934 and section 43A of Banking Regulation Act, 1949.

In a bid to encourage more investors to hold securities in the demat form, the SEBI has waived demat charges except the statutory ones with effect from January 9, 2006.

S&P CNX Defty index is S&P CNX nifty, measured in US dollar terms. Currently Defty is computed based on nifty index and end of previous day Exchange Rate (US $-Re). The same exchange rate is used for computation of defty index value during trading hours. It is proposed to compute defty index value based on Real time Exchange Rate (US $-Re) with effect from 14th November 2005.

Sebi is considering re-introducing “Mapin” (Market Participants and Investor database) but without the requirement for fingerprinting of market participants. Unlike the earlier system, the new method based on alternative system using new software called “dedupe” as suggested by the committee under the chairmanship of Jagdish Capoor.

The Sebi has said that the strategic sale of a stock exchange to a company or an individual would be illegal. The dilution of stake can be done only through an IPO so that the shareholding is broadbased. Some of the brokers and merchant bankers apprehend that this would derail the process of corporatisation and demutualisation of stock exchanges like BSE and Delhi Stock Exchange (DSE).

A high –powered internal group has been formed by Sebi to draft guidelines on several important issues related to corporatisation and demutaulisation of stock exchanges. The group will examine the process of divesting 51 per cent stake, a pre-condition for all bourses where C&D scheme has been formulated by the regulator.

The Sebi has said that the listed entities could face stiff penalties including de-listing from the stock exchanges if they do not comply with corporate governance norms by the year-end. The Sebi chairman also ruled out any dilution or extension of the December 31 deadline for companies to abide by the revised clause 49 of the listing agreement, which says that at least 50 per cent of directors in a listed company board should be independent.

Movements in Index:

In November, all the stock indices saw a reversal of the trend observed in October as they continued their rising trend after undergoing a correction. The BSE sensex registered a gain of 11.4 per cent after having fallen by 8.6 per cent in October, similarly, the S&P CNX nifty rose by 11.9 per cent after having fallen by 8.9 per cent in the previous month. Among the sectoral indices of BSE, the highest gains have been recorded by consumer durables index followed by capital goods (Table 8.3). As compared to the gains recorded by BSE sensex, the BSE mid-cap registered somewhat lower gains at 10.7 per cent while BSE small cap rose by 12.4 per cent.

 

Table 8.3: Monthly Percentage Change in the Stock Indices of BSE.

 

Index

Base Year

October Closing

November Closing

November

Percentage change for the month

 

 

 

 

High

Low

 

SENSEX

1978-79

7892.32

8788.81

9,033.99

7,891.23

11.36

BSE 100

1983-84

4159.59

4649.87

4,773.30

4,157.64

11.79

BSE200

1989-90

999.57

1114.21

1,142.81

999.41

11.47

BSE 500

1998-99

3198.69

3568.37

3,655.53

3,199.47

11.56

BSE Mid-Cap

2002-03

3771.56

4175.19

4,248.29

3,768.02

10.70

BSE Small-Cap

2002-03

4952.5

5567.17

5,680.64

4,975.36

12.41

BSE TECk

April 02,2001

2069.76

2253.45

2,320.20

2,061.11

8.87

BSEPSU

1998-99

4558.89

5061.96

5,198.37

4,554.93

11.03

BSE AUTO

Feb 01,1999

3414.65

3984.29

4,135.91

3,434.82

16.68

BANKEX

Jan 01,2003

4425.36

4789.72

4,907.09

4,403.06

8.23

BSE CG

Feb 01,1999

4548.99

5495.09

5,685.20

4,560.56

20.80

BSE CD

Feb 01,1999

2347.63

2921.32

3,012.75

2,349.05

24.44

BSEFMC

Feb 01,1999

1387.36

1548.53

1,604.48

1,388.02

11.62

BSE HC

Feb 01,1999

2694.46

3003.4

3,080.75

2,688.79

11.47

BSE IT

Feb 01,1999

3115.12

3368.32

3,461.65

3,089.43

8.13

BSE METAL

Feb 01,1999

5535.42

5931.74

6,202.06

5,545.92

7.16

BSE OIL & GAS

Feb 01,1999

3725.57

4129.33

4,245.42

3,719.65

10.84

Source:www.bseindia.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Among the different indices of NSE, Bank nifty recorded a gain of 7.35 per cent after having fallen by 13.4 per cent in October and CNX IT fell by 3 per cent in October, but rose by 10 per cent in November  (Table 8.4)

 

Table 8.4: Monthly Percentage Change in the Stock Indices of NSE.

 

Index

Base Year

October Closing

November Closing

November

Percentage change for the month

 

 

 

 

 

High

Low

 

 

S&P CNX Nifty

1995

2370.95

2652.25

2727.05

2366.8

11.86

 

CNX IT

1996*

3211.95

3533.95

3639.4

3183.4

10.03

 

CNX Nifty Junior

1996

4714.45

5242

5383.2

4690.9

11.19

 

S&P CNX Defty

1995

1822.35

1999.55

2056.4

1816.35

9.72

 

BANK Nifty

2000

4003.85

4298.2

4226.95

3959.07

7.35

 

CNX Midcap

2003

3478.65

3832.5

3896.85

3477

10.17

 

S & P CNX  500

1994

2067.8

2306.15

2362.85

2066.25

11.53

 

Note: * the base value has been changed from 1000 to 100 with effect from May 28, 2004.

 

Source: www.nseindia.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Derivatives Trading: Futures and Options (F & O)

Despite the increase in volatility in the cash market, the derivatives notional turnover has fallen from Rs 43,3651 crore in October to Rs 3,95,845 crore in November. As usual, futures contributed to bulk of derivative trading constituting 89 per cent of the total, the remaining being option turnover (Table 8.5). In view of such a lower level of trading in options, Sebi has set up a group of experts to examine the impediments to the growth of options trading in India, though options have a great potential as a derivative instrument, it has been less popular as compared to futures.

As per the data put out by NSE for the period during May-October 2005, the total derivatives turnover has continued to rise over this period but the share of of open interest to daily average traded value has been moving randomly. It rose from 171 per cent in May to 176 per cent in June, then fell to 145 per cent in July but rose to 155 per cent in September but fell again to 129 per cent in October. Also, for the first time since the inception of the F&O segment on NSE, it has recorded more than three times the turnover of cash segment in October 2005.    

Regulations:

Ahmedabad Stock Exchange has sought for the F & O segment, trading rights from Sebi, in order to ramp up its trading capacity in derivative market. ASE will be incorporated as Limited Company on December 14,2005.

2. Debt Market:

Call Market:

The month of November began with call money market rates ruling above the repo rate of 5.25 per cent due to the carryover of liquidity strain arising from subdued foreign currency flows and anticipations of festival cash demand. The situation continued upto the third week of the month, by which time, series of RBI interventions to improve liquidity accompanied by inflows due to the redemptions and coupon payments helped the call rates to slide from the hump. Even so, they ruled above the reverse repo (lending) rate of 5.25 per cent throughout the month.

Repo under RBI’s LAF:

Reverse Repos and Repos,

Given the stressed liquidity situation, there was a precipitate fall in the size of reverse repo bids (absorbing funds from the market) tendered to a little more than in the previous month; aggregate bids amounted to Rs 83,505 crore in November as against Rs.3, 74,740 crore in October.

Table 8.6: Daily Repo and Reverse Repo Bids for the Month of  November 2005

Week

1 Day Repo bids

Reverse Repo bids

Outstanding Amount

 

Tendered

Accepted

Tendered

Accepted

 

31-Oct to 04-Nov

-

-

33710

33710

33710

07-Nov to 11-Nov

7815

7815

18995

18995

11180

14-Nov to 18-Nov

9250

9250

2220

2220

-7030

 

 

 

 

 

 

Source: RBI's Weekly Statistical Supplement.

 Also, with a view to easing liquidity, RBI accepted repo bids (injection of liquidity) to the extent of Rs 17,065 crore. In the week ending November 4, the reverse repo bids worth Rs 33,710 crore were tendered. The next week ending November 11, due to the outflows on account of the festive season and central loan floatation, the reverse repo bids fell to Rs 18,995 crore and RBI injected liquidity to the extent of Rs 7,815 crore.  In the week ending November 18, the size of bids tendered fell further to Rs 2,220 crore, while RBI had to inject liquidity to the extent of Rs 9,250 crore. By the end of the month, normalcy was restored in the liquidity situation and as a result, the aggregate reverse repo bids tendered in the week ending November 25 rose to Rs 28,580 crore and also no repo bids were tendered.

The RBI introduced a second Liquidity Adjustment Facility (SLAF) with effect from November 28. SLAF will be conducted on all working days except Saturdays and these bids will be received between 3.00 pm and 3.45 pm; the normal LAF is carried in the forenoon hours. 

Government securities market:

Primary Market:

Dated Securities

Despite the pressure on liquidity and despite the RBI having to cancel MSS floatations, the government continued with its scheduled borrowing program by mobilising an aggregate amount of Rs 13,000 crore albeit by offering higher yields. In the first instance, the government tapped the market on November 8 to mobilise an aggregate amount of Rs 8,000 crore through re-issues of 7.49 per cent 2017 and 7.40 per cent 2035 for notified amounts of Rs 5,000 crore and Rs 3,000 crore, respectively, both through price-based auctions using multiple price method. For the 30-year paper, the yield has been set at 7.73 per cent, while in its first re-issuance in October the yield had been set at 7.66 per cent and in its issuance the paper was auctioned in September at 7.40 per cent.

In the second instance, the government re-issued 8.35 per cent 2022 for a notified amount of Rs 5,000 crore through price-based auction using multiple price method. For this, 344 competitive bids worth Rs 14,017 crore were received, of which 11 bids for Rs 4,944.20 crore have been accepted at a cut-off yield of 7.43 per cent.

 

Table 8.7: Details of Central Government Market Borrowing

(Rs. Crore)

Date of Auction

Nomenclature of loan

Notified Amt.

Bids Received

Bids Accepted

Indicative YTM at cut-off price/reissue price/coupon rate

 

 

 

Competitive

Competitive

 

 

 

 

Number

Value

Number

Value

 

06-Nov

7.49 per cent- 2017

5000

187

8889

115

4942.058

7.3257 per cent (Rs.101.25)

06-Nov

7.40 per cent-2035

3000

151

6349

132

2962.96

7.7282 per cent (Rs.96.18)

24-Nov

8.35 per cent-2022

5000

344

14016.58

11

4944.20

7.4304 per cent (Rs.108.65)

 

Source: RBI, Press Releases.

 

On November 17, Andhra Pradesh state government auctioned 10-year state development loan for a notified amount of Rs 375 crore through yield-based auction using multiple price method. For this, 98 bids worth Rs 1786 crore were received, of which, 3 bids for Rs 375 crore have been accepted at a cut-off yield of 7.34 per cent. When SDLs were auctioned by some state governments in September, the cut-off yields accepted were in the range of 7.42-7.50 per cent.

Treasury Bills:

In the recent period, the MSS auctions have taken the form of TB issues, and hence with a view to supporting liquidity in the system, the RBI had to do it by cancelling the MSS auctions under all the three treasury bills: the notified amounts cancelled were of Rs 1,500 crore under 91-day TBs, Rs 1000 crore under 182-day bills and Rs 10,000 crore for 364-day bills.

Table 8.8: Auctions of Treasury Bills

(Rs Crore)

 

 

 

Bids Received

Bids Accepted

 

 

Date of Auction

Date of Issue

Notified Amt

No.

Total Face Value

No.

Total Face Value

Weighted avg. price

Implicit yield

 

 

 

 

Competitive

Non-competitive

 

Competitive

Non-competitive

 

 

91-Day Treasury Bills

02-Nov

04-nov

2000

59

2886

352

54

2000

352

98.62

5.6951

09-Nov

11-Nov

2000

55

2727

-

11

500

-

98.58

5.8189

16-Nov

18-Nov

500

52

1799

222

26

500

222

98.58

5.8189

23-Nov

25-Nov

500

47

2229

-

19

500

-

98.59

5.7364

182-Day Treasury Bills

02-Nov

04-Nov

1500

45

2501

-

33

1500

-

97.21

5.7984

16-Nov

18-Nov

500

33

1335

-

20

500

-

97.15

5.9046

364-Day Treasury Bills

9-Nov

11-Nov

2000

65

3991

-

11

1000

-

94.38

5.9823

23-Nov

25-Nov

1000

57

2920

-

28

1000

-

94.43

5.9372

Source: Weekly Statistical Supplement, RBI

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Corporate Debt Market

In November, with the deadline for compliance to Basel–II approaching, the banks have been taping the corporate debt market specifically to keep their capital adequacy ratios well above the stipulated regulatory 9 per cent. Thus, despite the prevalent liquidity crunch in the domestic debt market and rising short–term interest rates, the total amount of funds mobilised rose to Rs. 2,443 crore (by 6 issuers) in November as against Rs. 900 crore (by 4 issuers) in October.

Notably, for the first time in this financial year the State Bank of India has tapped the market to mobilise Rs. 1,000 crore offering 7.45 per cent for a maturity period of 113 months. Meanwhile, IDBI has been able to raise Rs. 750 crore offering a coupon rate in a range of 7.25–7.35 per cent for a maturity period of 5 years as against 5.80 per cent for a similar maturity period in March 2005, that’s almost 145 basis points more. (Table 8.9)

Interestingly, Kerala Transport Development Finance Corporation Limited –a state government undertaking tapped the market to mobilise a meagre amount of Rs. 43 crore at a coupon rate of 7.25 per cent for a tenure of 5 years as against 6.85 per cent which it had offered for a similar maturity paper in September 2004, despite enjoying same rating of ‘ A- (SO) by Care on both the occasions.

In a major step to widen the debt market as well as to promote the investments in the housing sectors, the government has proposed to let the mortgage–based securities be traded as listed securities in the stock market.  However, for this the definition of securities as currently stated in the Securities Contract (Regulations) Act, 1956 needs to be amended. The Cabinet has recently given its approval to amend the Securities Contract (Regulations) Act, 1956; the proposed amendment includes securitised debt under the definition of “securities”, thereby bringing the securitised debt to the mainstream of capital markets. It is expected that this increase in the availability of different instruments to invest in would in turn lead to more liquidity to the market. Further, with the possibility of the amendment providing for the listing of Pass–Through–Certificates (PTCs), the PSU banks which are currently restricted in investing in securitised debt due to the 10 per cent limit on investment in unlisted paper will have additional investment opportunities.

 Securitisation is a process whereby a large number of loans are aggregated or bundled by a lender, only to be disaggregated or unbundled into smaller debts which are in turn sold to investors in form of notes, representing a claim on underlying debt. A mortgage pass–through security or simply a mortgage pass–through is backed by a pool of mortgages whose monthly payments are the sole source cash flow of the security. The security is called the ‘pass–through ‘ because monthly payments generated from the underlying pool of mortgages are ‘passed’ from mortgagors ‘ through’ the issuer to investors in the security. Since pass through are backed by pools of mortgages, they are generically called mortgage–backed securities.

Secondary Market:

In November, the overall scenario of the money and government securities market remained one of caution as the pressure on liquidity was compounded by huge demand for bank funds on account of the festive season. Outflows on account of central and state loan floatations, improved credit-offtake and persistent foreign currency outflows since October were the primary causes for the liquidity strain. The weekly average for secondary market turnover for gilt-edged securities gyrated throughout the month. Responding to the underlying liquidity scenario, the yield curve was pushed upwards across maturity from the week ending November 4 to 11; it remained around it for the next week ending November 18. In the last week, while the short-term rates remained sticky, the medium and long-term rates eased, thereby flattening the yield curve.

3. Foreign Exchange Market

The rupee-dollar exchange in November has been influenced by a variety of factors leading to a depreciation of about 76 paise over the month, wherein it touched a low of Rs 45.99. These includes movement of dollar against the other currencies notably, yen and the Euro in expectation of continuation of monetary tightening in the US in the face of outflow of foreign currency assets in the country, huge demand for dollars from importers as the rupee is deprecating to many months low, also, demand for dollars in anticipation of the redemption of India millennium bonds (IMB) in December,  and most significantly RBI’s muted intervention and comments by the finance minister, tacitly approving the depreciation of the rupee. Overall in effective terms, while the new indices are yet to be released indications are that rupee has remained upvalued by about a per cent on NEER basis and around 9 per cent on REER basis

Table: 8.10 Settlement Volumes of Foreign Exchange Transactions Settled at CCIL - Weekly Basis

 

(Volumes in USD Million)

 

Week-End

Cash Transactions

Tom Transactions

Spot Transactions

Forward Transactions

Total Transactions

Daily Average

04-Nov-05

2999

4302

9496

16893

33691

8423

11-Nov-05

2495

3620

10000

668

16783

4196

18-Nov-05

2153

2261

11812

1601

17827

4457

25-Nov-05

1996

2191

10088

759

15033

3758

Source: CCIL Weekly Newsletters.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Forward premia:

The forward market remained impervious of the volatility of the spot rupee and continued to rise throughout the month as the interest rate differential narrowed following the yet another hike in the US Fed rate. Among the tenures, during period under review the one-month ruled above the six-month and three months.

4. Commodities Futures Market:

Given the nature of much of trading, commodity futures in November, the total turnover of the commodity exchanges all over the country registered some decline from Rs. 189,235.37 crore in October to Rs. 188,717.75 crore. It is considered that at least 20-25 per cent is due to round tripping, that is, circulation of trades. The total turnover of the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Ltd (NCDEX) continued its upward trend as it rose to Rs. 101,860 crore in November from Rs. 101,561 crore in the previous month. Also, MCX witnessed a marginal decline to Rs 76235 crore from Rs 76,309 in the previous month. Together, these two exchanges account for almost 94 per cent of the total commodity exchanges turnover. Among the other exchanges, the total turnover of the Chamber of Commerce, Harpur also registered a marginal increase at Rs. 389 crore in November as compared with Rs. 385 crore in the previous month (Table 8.10).

In November, three commodities, viz, gold, gaur seed and urad accounted for around 40 per cent of the   total commodities exchange’s turnover. Among them, both gold and urad account for about 14 per cent each, while guar seed accounted for 11 per cent. 

Table 8.11:  Monthly Turnover Of Commodity Exchanges

(Amount in Rs. Crore).

 

Commodity Exchange.

September Turnover

October Turnover

November Turnover

1

Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited (MCX), Mumbai

81251.06

76309.95

76234.78

 

 

(41.66)

(40.32)

(40.39)

2

National Multi-Commodity Exchange of India Limited,(NMCE)  Ahmedabad

869.52

832.95

776.76

 

 

(0.44)

(0.44)

(0.41)

3

National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Ltd.(NCDEX)  Mumbai

103927.9

101561.06

101860.07

 

 

(53.28)

(53.66)

(53.97)

4

Chamber of Commerce, Hapur

310.05

385.45

389.394

 

 

(0.15)

(0.20)

(0.21)

5

National Board of Trade, Indore

3327.02

4046.27

3952.59

 

 

(1.70)

(2.13)

(2.09)

 

Total *

195027.12

189235.37

188717.75

Note: * Total includes the monthly turnover of the remaining 18 commodity exchanges.

          Figures in Italics denotes percentage share in total turnover.

Source: www.fmc.gov.in

            The leading Indian commodity exchanges have been increasingly going in for tie-ups with foreign exchanges, for instance, Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited (MCX) recently entered into a licensing agreement with London Metal Exchange to use LME prices as the basis for settling MCX futures contracts. The agreement will initially apply to MCX contracts for aluminium, tin and nickel in small lot sizes of 1 metric tonne. Further, MCX has also signed an MOU with New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX); this is expected to help Indian petroleum and petrochemical industries to hedge their price risk more efficiently. National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Ltd (NCDEX) has tied up with International Petroleum Exchange (IPE), Europe ’s leading energy futures exchange, for real-time quotes of Brent crude futures. The contract size would be 100 barrels and they will be traded and settled exclusively on NCDEX. Since Indian cannot trade on foreign exchanges with tie-ups traders can hedge the commodities cross-listed on exchanges in rupee terms on real time basis, these tie-ups help information sharing.

Developments in Commodity Futures:

Since November 17, 2005, NCDEX is displaying on its website a Road Freight Index for India . The index encompasses 50 high-density routes (which are subject to change) and is structured on the basis of the weekly movement in freight rates. A change in the freight rate in any of these 50 routes would revise the index upwards or downwards. The freight rate data is obtained from the Transport Corporation of India Limited. The index represents a simple average of the freight rates across these 50 routes, for a distance of 1000 kilometers. Thus, the index captures the movement of freight rates for a representative distance of 1000 kilometers, and dissociates the rate from the specific locations. The purpose of the Road Freight Index (FREIGHTEX) is to help in the discovery of freight rates and thereby provide a robust mechanism to both shippers/users (companies which desire to move goods) and transporters (truckers) to manage their price risk.

As a part of the on-going transformation of commodities trading, the National Spot Exchange has started the electronic networking of all the 290 agricultural markets in Maharashtra for Agricultural Produce (NSEAP). It is proposed to be extended to the 7,500 agricultural produce markets throughout the country in the next three years.

With a view to facilitate introduction of option trading in commodities as well as to provide greater autonomy to the Forward Market Commission (FMC), the government is set to put up a Bill to amend the Forward Contracts (Regulation) Act, 1950. The amended law will provide for setting up of a Forward Market Appellate Tribunal (FMAT) on the lines of the Security Appellate Tribunal (SAT) set up under Sebi Act.

The latest directive from Forward Markets Commission (FMC) seeks to make it mandatory for a market participant to indicate physical delivery intent at least five days before maturity of the contract. However, the trader may lose the opportunity to take full advantage of the price discovery process through the online national commodity exchanges. This directive comes into effect for all the contracts launched after November 01,2005. Further the FMC has also sought to impose a penalty of 5 per cent of the last trading day’s spot market average price in case of failure in delivery. According to some market players, the move instead of encouraging physical deliveries, it may well go against it.

With surge in volumes on commodity exchanges, the FMC has tightened open position limits and price limits for 24 commodities with effect from November 20 for all the running contracts and new contracts.  According to FMC, the limit on open positions for members and clients of the three national exchanges would be either the limit indicated by the regulator in each commodity or 20 per cent of the market –wide open position. The exchanges would be at the liberty to prescribe lower limits on open positions than those prescribed by FMC.

FCI, though not yet a player in futures,  has introduced third-party foodgrain quality audit and certification to reduce its storage losses and eliminate complaints regarding supply of substandard rice and wheat; the FCI has already signed a memorandum of under standing with the NCDEX for this purpose.

FCI is considering futures trading in surplus grains for better price realisation, the primary objective of FCI is to ensure food grain security and act as a market stabiliser. It is looking at ways to trade food grain stocks that are surplus after meeting the PDS and buffer stock requirements on the commodity exchanges without compromising on any of our objectives

BSE is tying up with seven leading regional commodity exchanges under the umbrella of the Federation of Commodity Exchanges (FICE) to launch a new nationwide commodity derivative exchange to provide a mutual platform for exchanges. The FMC has given in-principle approval the creation of the new exchange.

5. Insurance

Development Activities

The government has launched a health insurance scheme for 3 lakh handloom weavers and allied workers and their families across the country in collaboration with ICICI Lombard. For subscribing to the scheme, the weavers will have to contribute Rs.200, while the government will contribute Rs.800 through the office of development commissioner.

The Life Insurance Council, the representative body for Indian life insurance companies, along with Actuarial Society of India (ASI), has floated a new company called Mortality and Morbidity Investigation Bureau (MMIB), a 50:50 joint venture between the Council and ASI. MMIB has been mandated with preparing a new mortality chart on the basis of which life insurers will fix the premium for insurance policies. With the increase in life expectancy, there is a need to upgrade the mortality table to current levels. A new chart will result in a more realistic premium calculation for new policies. At present, new private life insurers base their calculations on the decade-old mortality table prepared by LIC. In addition, the company will also prepare a morbidity table — a set of figures which will indicate incidence and severity of sicknesses and accidents in a defined classes or persons. At present, there is no morbidity table, which enables correct pricing by insurers for all new products. Currently, Indian insurers draw examples from the international experience of reinsurance firms on critical illness. At a later stage, MMIB will provide consultancy and data service to insurers for a fee. It will initially work in technical collaboration with the Continuous Mortality Investigation Bureau (CMIB) of the UK .

The Ministry of Health and Family Welfare is considering establishing a task force to develop a low-cost health insurance programme as part of the National Rural Health Mission. As per the proposal, over 3,200 community health centres in the country will be strengthened so that they can provide basic healthcare to the masses. It is estimated that aggregate household expenditure on healthcare during 2004-05 amounted to more than Rs 1,00,000 crore (1 trillion) and therefore the strengthening of the public health delivery system and the availability of a large number of health workers will provide an opportunity to improve risk pooling through the community-based health insurance.

*These statistics and the accompanying review are a product arising from the work undertaken under the joint ICICI research centre.org-EPWRF Data Base Project.


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