Current Economic Statistics and Review For the
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Theme
of the week:
Sugarcane and the Sugar Economy *
Trends
in Sugarcane Cultivation Sugarcane has been a traditional and relatively more remunerative crop amongst all non-foodgrain and foodgrain crops cultivated in the country. Assured demand by sugar mills and provision of minimum returns to the growers in the form of fixed procurement price [statutory minimum price (SMP) by central government and state advisory price (SAP)] are the two basic factors that have lured farmers for cultivating this highly profitable commercial crop over the years.
While sugarcane production has risen from 57.1 million tonnes to 345.3 million tonnes marking an average CAGR of 2.97 per cent, the yield has improved at an average CAGR of 1.20 per cent to 66.8 tonnes per hectare from 33.4 tonnes per hectare in 1950-51. A glance at decadal CAGR (Table 1) reveals a cyclical pattern in terms of cultivation, production and productivity of sugarcane, growth in respect of which has been the highest during 1950-51 to 1959-60 partly due to base effect and has decelerated in the consequent decades. The CAGR in terms of area covered and production have been the lowest during 2000-2007 period. This can be attributed to factors like deficient rainfall experienced by major sugarcane growing states in 2002-03, mounting up of cane-price arrears resulting in lower returns to cane growers and lower cultivation of sugarcane, and spoiling of crop due to pest attack in 2003-04. However, favourable monsoon situation during kharif sowing season 2006 facilitated the highest ever coverage of 4.8 million hectares and has witnessed a record production of 345.3 million tonnes (4th Advanced Estimate for 2006-07) in the sugar year 2006-07. Sugarcane
Production in
Sugarcane is the only
source of sugar production in
The Sugar Economy
The sugar
industry consists of two major segments, viz., registered sugar mills in
the organised sector that produce centrifugal sugar (i.e. white refined
sugar) and small-scale manufacturers of traditional sweeteners like gur
and khandsari in the unorganised sector. Co-existence of these two
segments affects availability of sugarcane to sugar mills, especially in
periods of low output as manufacturers of gur and khandsari are free from
controls and taxes that are applicable to the sugar sector and can pass on
a part of cost to customers, whereas sugar mills have to follow certain
cost-return margins fixed by the government. As per ICRA report (2006),
about 68 per cent of the sugarcane produced in
The organised segment producing white refined sugar comprises three
sub-segments, viz., private sector, public sector and cooperative sector.
Cooperative sugar mills have traditionally dominated the Indian sugar
market, contributing almost 70 per cent of the total sugar production in
the late 1980s and nearly 60 per cent of the total sugar production in
1999-2000 (ICRA 2006). However, with the gradual deregulation of the
domestic sugar market by the government, cooperatives’ share in total
sugar production has diminished gradually. For instance, as per the ICRA
report (2006), the share of cooperative mills in total sugar production
has fallen from around 57 per cent in 2000 to 36.7 per cent in 2005, while
that of private and public undertakings taken together has risen from 43
per cent to 63.3 per cent during the same period (Table 3).
Sugar production in the country has increased at a CAGR 5.2 per cent from
1.1 million tonnes in 1950-51 to 19.3 million tonnes in 2005-06. Sugar
production remained below 5 million tonnes till 1980-81, except for the
year 1977-78 when it had touched 6.5 million tonnes on account of an all
time high level of sugarcane output (177 million tonnes) till that date.
During the late 1990s, sugar production ranged between 6 to12 million
tonnes and got accelerated during 1990-2000 remaining between 10-18
million tonnes. The pace of growth continued till the sugar year 2002-03
(October – September), when the country achieved an all time high-level
production of 20.1 million tonnes. However, due to drought in major
sugar-producing states like Maharashtra, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu and
wooly aphids pest infestation, sugar production fell to around 14 million
tonnes and 13 million tonnes in 2003-04 and 2004-05 sugar seasons,
respectively. While sugar production recovered to stand at 19.3 million
tonnes during the sugar season 2005-06, it has been estimated to record an
upsurge of 17.5 per cent to touch 22.7 million tonnes in 2006-07. The
increase in sugar production during the last and the current sugar seasons
is mainly due to good monsoon and increases in sugarcane area under
cultivation. State-Wise
Picture
A glance at state-wise sugar production reveals that Uttar Pradesh has
emerged as the top- most sugar-producing state in sugar year 2005-06, with
its share touching around 30 per cent (5.8 million tonnes) of total
production, followed by Maharashtra contributing almost 27 per cent (5.2
million tonnes), though the situation was just the opposite almost a
decade ago with Maharashtra holding the top position (a share of 33 per
cent) and Uttar Pradesh ranking second (27 per cent) (Table 5). However,
it can be observed that production by the states in the tropical region
has been higher compared to those in the sub-tropical region in spite of
the states from sub-tropical region having higher cane output. It is the
higher sugarcane yields among the tropical states that have led to better
recovery rates, and in turn it has resulted in higher sugar output among
those sates. For instance, recovery rate in Maharashtra and
In Relation to the
Global Picture-and Export – Import Trade
At the
global level,
In spite
of being the second largest producer, Sugar imports, on the other hand, remained sluggish during financial
years 2000-01 to 2002-03 on account of rise in the domestic availability
and increase in custom duty (the custom duty was raised to 60 per cent in
February 2000 from 40 per cent in December 1999 apart from levying
countervailing duty of Rs 850 per tonne). Sugar imports, however, rose in
the subsequent years in order to meet the rising demand in the domestic
market in the backdrop of fall in domestic production (Table 6). Continuous increase in sugar demand started putting upward pressure on domestic sugar prices and to curb this rise in sugar prices, the government banned export of sugar with effect from June 22, 2006, excluding exports permitted through ISEC subject to the quantitative ceiling notified by the Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT) from time to time and export of sugar against irrevocable letters of credit (LC) opened before June 22, 2006 and export of sugar that has left the factory premises before June 22, 2006 and in port premises or in transit after verification of certain documents. The government also permitted sugar imports at zero duty for the period June 23 to September 30, 2006 and banned sugar exports effective July 21, 2006.
However, lifting of the ban has failed to benefit the exporters because the decision was delayed, and by that time the Indian rupee has started appreciating against the U.S. dollar even as the international sugar prices have been falling. Bumper Crop –
and Policy Responses
Record
output of sugarcane has become a major cause of concern for sugar industry
in the domestic market as it has resulted in excess supply of sugar in the
domestic market, lowering prices and swelling up of stocks, thus eroding
the profitability of sugar mills. Mills are under immense pressure from
farmers to crush additional cane despite adverse economics. Consequently,
the sugar industry is facing a severe financial crisis resulting in delays
in payments to the farmers. Sugar mills in Uttar Pradesh and To rescue the sugar industry, the central government has already taken various steps, which are as follows: § Build up of buffer stocks of two million tonnes of sugar and providing an export incentive of Rs. 1,350 ($32) to Rs. 1,450 ($34) per tonne of sugar to mills, both to be paid out of the government’s Sugarcane Development Fund (SDF). The buffer stock would be allocated to individual mills that will have the responsibility of maintaining them. The mills will use the warehouse receipt for the allocated buffer stock to secure loans from banks to make timely payments to farmers for the purchased cane. The government will reimburse mill owners’ interest costs, storage, and insurance, associated with the buffer stock maintenance. § Approving the financing of an additional 3 million tonnes of sugar buffer, over and above the 2 million tonnes created earlier, which would require the provision of funds worth Rs 570 crore, which would be used from the Sugar Development Fund (SDF). § Extending the time limit given to the sugar industry for repaying bank loans §
Provision of additional bank credit of about Rs 630 crore by
getting their 15 per cent margin money released against the pledged buffer
stock (assuming an average valuation of Rs 14,000 per tonne). Following
this, the Reserve Bank of § Announcement of relief package that would increase the moratorium period till March 2010 and provide financial assistance to sugar units that missed the current crushing season. §
The export subsidy on sugar announced by
the central government in March 2007 would not apply to mills exporting
sugar under the advance licence ( The central government has also announced some non-cash incentives to encourage exports. According to this, the mills exporting sugar would be exempted from supplying the same amount to government at a highly subsidised rate for distribution to the poor under the public distribution system (PDS). These incentives are, however, not applicable to exports under preferential quota allotted by importing countries. These incentives were to be given only on export of sugar made during the period January 3, 2007 to July 2, 2007 under Advance Authorisation Scheme and for exports under the Open General Licence Scheme for the period January 23, 2007 to July 22, 2007. The government has decided to extend the period of these incentives by six months. Accordingly, the period of incentive stands extended from July 3, 2007 to January 2, 2008 for exports under Advance Authorisation Scheme and from July 23, 2007 to January 22, 2008 for exports under Open General License Scheme or till further orders whichever is earlier. Some state governments have also announced relief measures (tax relief and subsidies) to mills to enable them to make timely payments to cane farmers. Several states have announced tax reliefs for late season crushing. For
instance, the government of It
has approved a special package for the sugar industry. The government is
expected to bear an additional burden of over Rs 200 crore on account of
the package, which comprises an export subsidy of Rs 1,000 per tonne of
sugar for 2007-08, a transport subsidy of Rs 2 per km per tonne and a
subsidy for sugar recovery loss (on an average Rs 130 for 1 per cent
reduction in the sugar recovery). Provision of this package has been in
addition to the government’s decision to exempt sugarcane from the
purchase tax. In addition to this, with effect from April 25, 2007 sugar
mills in A
KPMG report, ‘The Indian Sugar Industry Sector Roadmap 2017’ has
suggested creating a ‘strategic stock’ for sugar by disposing of the
existing monthly release mechanism that governs sugar sales to maintain
prices in a sustainable band. According to the report, commissioned by the
Indian Sugar Exim Corporation (ISEC), the strategic stock would involve
the government or an independent body intervening as a market participant
in order to maintain sugar prices within a defined band. The strategic
stock intervention would get initiated through sugar purchases when the
sugar price falls below the band, thus increasing the prices and
vice-a-versa. The strategic stock could be funded through a special
purpose vehicle, with the sustainable price band being defined by the
government and the day-to-day operations of procurement and release of
stocks being vested with an independent agency. (*This note has been prepared by Miss Pallavi Oak) References §
Indian § ICRA Sector Analysis, ‘The Indian Sugar Industry’ (2006), July § Ministry of Agriculture, ‘Agricultural Statistics At a Glance 2005 and 2006’ § Ministry of Agriculture (2007), ‘Reports of the Commission for Agricultural costs and Prices for the crops sown during 2006-07 season’ § Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution, ‘Annual Report 2006-07’ § Various Media Sources
Highlights of Current Economic Scene AGRICULTURE Kharif sowings in the
current season has been completed by about 95 per cent and has revealed
that sowing pattern has drastically changed because most of the farmers
have responded to the prices of the crops rather than the rainfall. Rice
acreage have declined marginally by 319.04 lakh hectares as compared to
322.76 lakh hectares from the corresponding period of last year, with
states like Tamil Nadu, Punjab and Andhra Pradesh facing decline in the
cultivation of about 17 per cent, 2 per cent and 6 per cent, respectively.
On the other hand, the area under coarse cereals, especially maize and
bajra, prices of which have gone up by 6 per cent due to demand from
poultry and other industries. The total coverage of kharif oilseeds has
also improved nearly by 8 per cent this year, i.e., about 167.93 lakh
hectares as against that of 155.41 lakh hectares a year ago, with
groundnut gaining 13 per cent and soybean 9 per cent in cropped area. Even
crops such as The central government has
expressed its concern over the rising prices of onion, which have
influenced the prices of other vegetables like tomato. Onion prices have
started rising by the second week of August. For instance, onion prices at
Lasalgaon in Wheat prices, which are
quoting around Rs 1,050 per quintal, are set to go up by at least 10 to 15
per cent by Diwali, as stocks with flour mills would get exhausted and
fresh demand would crop up by that time. Meanwhile, wheat prices would
rise much more than expected as international prices are moving up at a
faster rate, (quoted around US $325 per tonne) and have touched their
peaks in recent times. Prices are rising because According to, Solvent Extractor’s Association of As per Solvent
Extractors’ Association of India (SEA), the demand for edible oils in
the country is expected to increase by 6 per cent per annum, from the
current 12 million tonnes to15.6 million tonnes by 2010 and further to
21.3 million tonnes by 2015, assuming per capita consumption increases by
4 per cent and population growth by 1.8 per cent. This would take place
because domestic vegetable oil production, which is around 7 to 8 million
tonnes, is not sufficient to meet domestic demand. Oilseeds production for
the current oil year (COY) ending on October 2007 is estimated to 23.2
million tonnes which is down by 4.7 million tonnes from the previous year,
equivalent to 7.7 million tonnes of vegetable oils. Total availability of
vegetable oils from domestic production and import is estimated to 13.50
million tonnes during 2006-07. The overall imports of vegetable oils,
edible oils, vanaspati and non-edible oils during the current year are
projected to be around 5.8 million tonnes compared to 5.4 million tonnes a
year ago. The share of palm oil is expected to increase to 4.15 million
tonnes whereas that of soft oil such as soy oil is likely to decrease to
1.65 million tonnes. The total imports would be 4.7 - 4.8 million tonnes
for the entire year as compared to 4.4 million tonnes in 2005-06. As per India Trading Company, Indian sugar exports have crossed 2 million tonnes in the crop year of 2006-07 and is expected to reach 5 million tonnes in 2007-08 if weakness in the rupee sustains for the longer period and international sugar prices continue falling further. Notwithstanding this, the central government is expecting sugar exports much less than 5 million tonnes, i.e., around 3 million tonnes in 2007-08. Jaggery producers from all
over the country have demanded production subsidy from the central
government, in line with the sugar sector. Industrial bodies, including
Muzaffarnagar-based Federation of Gur Traders, are in the process of
finalising the proposal, which would be submitted to the government for
recommendation. As Jaggery sector has been under tremendous price pressure
nation-wide since when Centre allowed leftover standing sugarcane crop to
be converted into jaggery. In As per Associated Chambers
of Commerce & Industry (Assocham), Tobacco exports would increase to
Rs 1605 crore towards the end of current fiscal from about Rs 1506 crore
of last year. Tobacco growers are in position to export more than 60 per
cent of their produce in view of rising demand in countries like As per the notification given by Director General of Foreign Trade (DGFT)
on August 29 2007, As per the Marine
Products Exports Development Authority (MPEDA), marine exports from the
country have crossed Rs 8,000 crore mark for the first time, it have
touched to $1.85 billion during 2006-07, an increase of 12.69 per cent
over the previous year. In terms of quantity, seafood exports increased by
19.62 per cent to 6.12 lakh tonnes from 5.12 lakh tonnes a year ago
and value realisation in terms of rupees has also increased by 15.43 per
cent to Rs 8,363 crore. Meanwhile, China is emerging as strong buyer of
Indian seafood exports, at present it is the top importer of Indian
seafood in terms of volume and its share in value-terms has gone up
by13.83 per cent. Frozen shrimps have constituted the biggest contributor
in terms of value in the total exports and have accounted for 53.88 per
cent of the total value of exports. At the international level, Europe has
continued to be the largest exporter, accounting for 33 per cent of the
total value of exports, at $611 million and is followed by Council for Leather
Exports (CLE), the leading national body of the Indian leather industry,
has signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the British Footwear
Association (BFA), Central Silk Board (CSB) has set a target to increase bivoltine silk production to 5,000 tonnes per annum at the end of 11th plan period from the current level of 1,095 tonnes. It has been projected to achieve 90 per cent of its target from the southern states like Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. Andhra Pradesh government has set a higher target to increase its bivoltine raw silk production by 2,000 tonnes per annum during the 11th plan period from 193 tonnes produced in the financial year 2006-07. To achieve this target, the state has decided to increase its cocoon production to 12,000 tonnes per annum from 3,150 tonnes as per the current fiscal year. The state government of Karnataka has fixed the target to push up bivoltine raw silk production to 1,500 tonne per annum during the 11th plan period from 358 tonnes in 2006-07 by creating new sericulture clusters in non-traditional parts of the state. The state is likely to increase the area under sericulture to 1.30 lakh hectares during 11th plan period from the current 97,647 hectares. Tamil Nadu government has planned to promote bivoltine sericulture by following ‘cluster approach’ to expand its mulberry areas, for which it has identified 43 clusters and is expected to increase its production by more than 1,500 tonnes per annum during 11th plan period from 296 tonnes in 2006-07. IndustryPharmaceuticals Automobiles Swedish car major Volvo
Car Corporation (VCC) is planning to launch its two-flagship products S80
sedan and sports utility vehicle XC90 SUV, in Steel Steel prices are expected to rise in September 2007 by $15-20 a tonne, following a steady rise in global steel prices resulting from the increase in the price of the scrap and iron ore. InfrastructureThe government has roped
in CRISIL Infrastructure advisory, Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Natural Gas GAIL ( Oil and Natural Gas Corporation has entered into a memorandum of understanding with global oil major British Petroleum for collaboration in exploration and production (E&P) business in India and abroad. Aviation The National Aviation Company of India (NACIL), which is formed after the merger of Air India (AI) and Indian Airlines (IA) has decided to make New India Assurance and ICICI Lombard the co-insurer. The total exposure value of the deal will be $ 5-6 billion for 2007-08.New India Assurance has formed a consortium with other state run non-life insurance companies comprising Oriental General Insurance, National General Insurance and United India General Insurance. These four together would share 80 per cent of the total risk while the rest 20 per cent by ICICI Lombard-led consortium comprising Bajaj Allianz, IFFCO-Tokyo and Reliance General Insurance Company. Coal Oil Power Bharat Heavy Electricals (BHEL)
has bagged a contract for a 500 MW nuclear power plant at Kalpakkam in
Tamilnadu being set up by Bhartiya Nabhikiya Vidyut Nigam. Under
international competitive bidding BHEL has won a contract for the turbine
generator and secondary side equipment for the first Prototype Fast
Breeder Reactor of 500MW rating. The unit is scheduled for commissioning
during the 11 th five-year plan. Of the 17 nuclear power generating units
operating at six locations in the country BHEL contributes 3,280 MW, which
is 80 per cent of State-run Power Grid
Corporation of InflationThe annual point-to-point inflation rate based on wholesale price index (WPI) declined by 3.94 percent for the week ended August 11,2007. During the comparable week of the earlier year, it was 5.12 per cent.
During the week under review, the WPI rose to 213.6 from 213.4 in the previous weeks’ level (Base: 1993-94=100). The index of ‘primary articles’ group, (weight 22.02 per cent), rose by 0.5 percent to 224.7 from its previous week’s level of 223.5, mainly due to higher prices fruits and vegetables, bajra, masur,and gram.
The price index of ‘fuel, power, light and lubricants’ group (weight 14.23 per cent) registered remained unchanged at the last weeks level.
The index of ‘manufactured products’ group declined by 0.1 per cent to 185.6 from 185.7 during the week under review. The lower prices of edible oils, khandasari etccontributed for the down trend in the prices of manufactured products. The latest final index of WPI for the week ended June 23, 2007 has undergone upward revision; as a result both, the absolute index and the implied inflation rate stood at 212.4 and 4.32 per cent as against the provisional data of 212.0 and 4.13 per cent.
BankingThe
RBI has allowed urban co-operative banks to shift their branches from one
city to another within the area of operation. Under
the powers conferred by section 45-1A (6) of the Reserve Bank of India
Act, 1934, the RBI has cancelled the certificate of registration of
Financial Eyes (India) Ltd for having carried out business of a
non-banking financial institution. The
RBI has cancelled the certificate of registration granted to the New
Delhi-based Bhasin Credit Aid Ltd. The company will not be able to
transact any business of a non-banking financial institution. The
RBI has sanctioned the scheme of amalgamation of Lord Krishna Bank with
Centurion Bank of Punjab Ltd. The scheme will come into force with effect
from August 29, 2007. Financial MarketsCapital Markets Primary Market Banglore-based Purvankara Projects, which was listed on the stock exchange at a 22.50 per cent discount on August 30, was the second real estate IPO to be listed at a discount to its issue price during this calendar year, reflecting growing investor fatigue to real estate IPOs. It debuted on the NSE at a discount of 22.5 per cent at Rs 310, against the offer price of Rs 400 and closed at Rs 362.30. Traded quantity on the NSE and the BSE was 1.08 crore shares and 71.23 lakh shares, respectively. Kaveri Seed Company Ltd, an agri-input company, proposes to tap the markets with an initial public offering of 40 lakh equity shares of face value Rs 10 each. The issue is to be made through a 100 per cent book building process, opens on September 6 and closes on September 11. The price band has been fixed at Rs 150-170. Of the total issue, 2 lakh shares have been reserved for eligible employees. Therefore, the net issue to the public is 38 lakh equity shares. The total issue will constitute 29.20 per cent and the net issue will constitute 27.74 per cent of the fully diluted post issue paid-up capital of the company. The equity shares are proposed to be listed on the BSE and the NSE.The company plans to raise between Rs 60 and Rs 68 crore. The volatility in the stock market appears to have hit public issue mop-ups in August. Indian companies mobilised only about Rs 665 crore from IPOs and follow-on public offerings (FPOs) during August, a drop of almost 82 per cent from the July level, but above the year’s low seen in May. There were five IPOs during the month— Take Solutions, KPR Mill, Motilal Oswal Financial Services, Indowind Energy and Magnum Ventures were issued through book building process — while the month’s sole FPO by Dagger Forst Tools raised Rs 16.23 crore from the market. On August 31, lack of
interest from retail investors had forced IT People ( Secondary Market After a tumultuous month’s trading in August - the benchmark BSE sensex swung back from a low of 13,779.88 (August 17) to a high of 15,318.60 Friday, 31 August. The S&P CNX Nifty was up 169.4 points to 4,464 in the week. Private equity player Baer
Capital Partners plans to launch $ 250 million India-dedicated hedge fund
by the year-end. Baer Capital is the first hedge fund to announce its New share listings in August have borne the brunt of the market turmoil with five of the 14 companies debuting at a discount to the issue price. Market watchers say that perception about the pricing and the subscription garnered are two important factors that influence the performance of an issue on listing day and subsequently. Most issues including IVR Prime Urban, Alpa Laboratories, KPR Mills and Puravankara Projects that listed at a discount are trading in red territory. Only SEL Manufacturing Company has managed to lift itself up after a weak opening. The UB Group has got regulatory approval from the Securities & Exchange Board of India (Sebi) for its open offer of additional shares of Deccan Aviation Ltd. SEBI had sought financial details on the UB Group would fund the open offer and these details had been submitted, following which Sebi gave its approval, Dr Vijay Mallya, Chairman of the UB Group, told mediapersons at the launch of NDTV's lifestyle channel. The alcoholic beverage major is the promoter of Kingfisher Airlines. UB Group had in July postponed an offer to increase stake in Deccan Aviation, because of a delay in getting approval from Sebi. Trading at Hyderabad Stock Exchange (HSE) came to a halt for the second consecutive day on August 30 as it is now de-recognised as per the Securities Contracts Regulations 2006 notified by Sebi. The 64-year-old HSE was required to complete the demutualisation scheme on or before August 28 and it failed to do so because of lack of response from investors to its offloading of 51 per cent of outstanding capital. According to HSE officials the exchange had not received any formal communication from Sebi on its status. But as per the Act, HSE was automatically deregistered from August 29. Sebi is not required to communicate the same immediately. The Sebi on Tuesday approved the open offer of Vedanta Resources for Sesa Goa. The open offer is being made by Vedanta Resources, a diversified industrial group with interests in metals and mining, to shareholders of Sesa Goa, after it bought 51 per cent stake held by Japan’s Mitsui & Co in the Indian company for Rs 4,086 crore in April this year. The price of the open offer is Rs 2,036 a share, the same price Vedanta paid to Mitsui for the acquisition of the majority stake. In its Annual Report, the RBI said that further deterioration in sub-prime delinquencies could lead to reassessment of risk by investors across products and markets and retrenchment of capital from the emerging market economies (EMEs), given the contagion and herd mentality. As a growing number of hedge funds invest in the country, the capital inflow can be volatile, given the nature of the funds, said the RBI. Private equity funds, another major source of capital for EMEs, are sensitive to interest changes. Therefore, any monetary tightening in the major economies could lead to a slowdown of investment from private equity funds, the RBI pointed out. The RBI said while its monetary policy stance would continue to be that of maintaining price stability and anchoring inflation expectations, in this context, financial stability would assume greater importance in the months to come. DerivativesThe spot Nifty closed at 4464 on Friday with the September series settled at 4429 while the October series was settled at 4410 and November at 4397. Open interest in the November series has already hit 41,000-plus, which is quite impressive. Among the other indices, the September Junior was settled at 8620 with the spot Junior held at 8633. The September Bank Nifty was settled at 6682 with the spot at 6676. The CNX IT was settled at 4792 with the spot closing at 4813. Apart from the Nifty, none of the other indices have any liquidity outside of the near-term contract. The Nifty September-October differential is a little larger than one would expect and this is a short settlement. So arbitraging with a calendar bear spread is possible . However, one would prefer to wait a week or so before taking a short September-long October.The differential is unlikely to disappear. The CNX IT contract normally trades at premium to the spot so, a long position here is reasonable. The market rebounded strongly through settlement week as short-covering triggered a technical recovery. The Nifty closed at 4464 points for a rise of 6.54 per cent while the Sensex closed at 15318.6 points for a rise of 6.19 per cent. The Defty was up 6.93 per cent as the rupee also strengthened. The Nifty Junior jumped an incredible 8.14 per cent. The recovery was across the board with the BSE 500 rising 6.64 per cent and a positive advance-decline ratio. This was despite FIIs being net sellers until the end of the settlement on Thursday. Domestic mutual funds were net buyers and so were operators and retail traders. The Bank Nifty also jumped 8.08 per cent despite bearish pronouncements from the RBI. The CNX IT rose 5.09 per cent despite the adverse rupee situation. Volumes were average for a settlement week. Government Securities
Market Primary Market The government of The primary market for short-term papers such as certificates of deposit
(CDs) and commercial papers will remain abuzz with issues primarily from
banks and corporates. Banks are rushing to raise deposits before interest
rates harden. In fact, at the weekly 91-day T-Bill auctions, the bids amounted to Rs
7,552 crore, though only Rs 3,500 crore was accepted. But the cut-off
yields firmed to 7.10 per cent, well over the previous week’s yield of
6.73 per cent.
Secondary Market Trading interest in the market will emerge from banks, which have cornered the gilts portfolio at lower prices. These banks will engage in trade at least before the second quarter ends to avoid a further upward movement of yields. A negative trigger for the market has been the robust growth figure of 9.3 per cent. Banks feel that higher growth is likely to fuel inflation, which, in turn, may lead to monetary-tightening measures by the RBI.
Bond yields remained
steady during the week as traders looked for cues from the Reserve Bank of
Traders said that the sharp increase in yields was largely on account of the fact that most deposits were coming in the high rate band, mostly between one and two-year band, that offered rates anywhere between 9 and 10 per cent. Besides, some of the banks were also loading the cost of maintaining 7 per cent cash reserve ratio to T-Bill pricing. CRR currently does not earn any interest. The weighted average yield for the 91- day auctions firmed to 7.02 per cent, up 25 basis points over the previous week. The government bond market could get a booster dose this year with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) planning to reintroduce floating and inflation-linked bonds. The government had earlier issued FRBs as well as inflation indexed bonds (also termed as capital index bonds). FRBs in 2001 (8-year paper for Rs 3,000 crore) and 2003 (11-year bonds for Rs 5,000 crore). RBI may issue floating rate & inflation-indexed bonds.
Gilt yields witnessed marginal improvement after easing in the previous week. In the absence of any fresh triggers, the gilt market registered range-bound trades and thin volumes for most part of the week, except for some buying interest towards the weekend. 7.49 per cent 2017 benchmark paper yield ended steady at 7.93 per cent after it registered an intra-week movement of 7.92-7.98 per cent. The firm short-term yields, notwithstanding, the ten-year YTM remained steady at 7.94 per cent on a weighted average basis last week, as against 7.93 per cent the previous week. But the undertone was weak. This was evident from the drop in daily trade volumes to just about Rs 4,100 crore. Bond Market The long-term bond issuers are waiting for cues from the monetary policy meeting of the US Federal Reserve on September 16 and will assess the liquidity situation around September 15 after advance tax payments. Therefore, most of the issuers Rural Electrification Corporation, Indian Railway Finance Corporation and Power Finance Corporation are likely to wait. However, the primary market for short-term papers such as certificates of deposit (CDs) and commercial papers will remain abuzz with issues primarily from banks and corporate. Banks are rushing to raise deposits before interest rates harden, says a banker.
Foreign
Exchange Market The market reaction is mixed on the movement of the spot rupee. The rupee appreciated marginally against the dollar to 0.21 paise from 24 August to 31 August. A section of the market is of the view that there has been no fresh fallout of the subprime crisis on the global markets. This is expected to rule out the fears of risk aversion towards emerging markets gradually. The rupee movement was choppy throughout the week. A consistent recovery of stocks and other global factors allowed the unit to recover sharply in the later half. The rupee rose to Rs 40.88 per dollar late in the week, up from week’s low of Rs 41.37 per dollar. Earlier, the rupee attempted but failed to derive and sustain strength out of the stock market rallies. Month-end demand and a general chaotic condition of the financial markets as a whole stopped the rupee at Rs 41 per dollar. The Reserve Bank of Commodities Futures
derivatives According to Kotak Commodity Services Ltd, demand in the physical markets is seen to be very weak. Despite the upcoming festive season, poor offtake from the millers is weighing heavily on the markets. Stocks in NCDEX warehouses have been witnessing a declining trend for past 10 days and this may be another factor to add bearish sentiment into the markets, it said. According to Angel
Commodities, huge arrivals of moong in Rajasthan have pressured farmers to
liquidate their chana stocks, leading to increased availability. Also,
global chickpea production is projected to be higher at 2.16 lakh tonnes
against 1.63 lakh tonnes last year. Besides, the crop in Refined soyabean oil
prices are expected to recover this week on festival demand and better
trend in overseas market. In the global market, soya oil prices are ruling
firm on Chicago Board of Trade owing to dry and hot weather in the Last week, NCDEX September refined soya oil futures declined by 1.35 per cent mainly on hopes of a better domestic oilseed production. On Saturday, refined soya oil for September delivery ended at Rs 480 for 10 kg and for October at Rs 479. Persistent overseas demand is likely to a positive factor for mentha oil in the medium term, while in the short term prices would be driven by the quantity of arrivals, Angel Broking said. Arrivals in Uttar Pradesh were around 700 drums a day. Last week, there was lack of demand from exporters and local manufacturers, as they held ample stocks and awaited further fall in prices. As a result, the sentiments in domestic and futures markets were mixed. On Saturday, Mentha oil September contracts closed at Rs 519 a kg, October ended at Rs 530. Public FinancesAs per the official
figures released by Controller General of Accounts, the revenue deficit of
the central government has stood at Rs 82,400 crore during the first four
months of 2007-08, exceeding the projection for the entire fiscal by 15.28
per cent. This implies that the government's expenditure on revenue
account, which includes interest payments, is growing at a much faster
rate than its revenue receipts, including taxes. The higher expenditure is
partly due to the huge tax refunds made in this fiscal year. The fiscal
deficit during the period has stood at Rs 1,29,408 crore comprising 85.7
per cent of the budget estimates for 2007-08. The acquisition of the
Reserve Bank of InsuranceICICI
Lombard Insurance has bagged Indian Oil’s (a Fortune 500 company)
insurance account for 2007-08. In a tough battle among the general
insurance companies including the four general insurers, ICICI Lombard
General Insurance was selected for its lowest-premium offer. The company
has managed to get the prized deal at around Rs 50 crore. New India
Assurance, which had insured the deal in 2006-07, lost the account as it
had bid higher. Corporate SectorBajaj
Auto had decided to shut down its Pune plant from September 1, 2007. The
company said that workmen have been asked to stay at home and will receive
five-and-half days’ wages per week for doing absolutely no work. The
company has refused to entertain suggestions of another round of VRS
scheme for these employees. The Pune plant currently has 2,730 workers.
Hotels major EIH, part of
the Oberai Group is planning to expand capacity by 66 per cent by building
2,700 rooms in new properties over the next five years in Punjab Chemicals and Crop
Protection has acquired Dutch company Fashion apparel retailing major Globus Stores is planning to increase its presence from 19-152 locations spread across 70 cities by 2012 on a lease model. The company has decided to invest Rs 800 crore for this expansion program, which will be sourced from debt, equity and internal accruals. It is also planning to foray into retailing of new product categories such as footwear and sunglasses, which will be retailed under ‘Globus’ private label brand through the stores. Fortis healthcare is investing Rs 800 crore to set up a 950-bed multi super specialty hospital in Gurgaon. The seven star hospital, Fortis International Institute of Medical sciences, will be spread over 10.7 acres of land and is expected to be completed in the next two to three years. Essar Power, Gujarat
Limited (EPGL), a subsidiary of Essar Power Holdings is planning to invest
Rs 4,800 crore to set up a 1,200-mw power plant in Ashok Leyland (AL) has
entered into an agreement with Japanese auto major Nissan Motor Company to
develop, manufacture and distribute light commercial vehicles (LCVs). The
move will help The first quarter results of 2007-08 have shown that the Corus acquisition of Tata Steel has helped the company to grow five times in size by turnover and six times by net profit. Tata Steels consolidated net profit stood at Rs 6,388 crore against Rs 1,014 crore in the first quarter of 2006.Turnover jumped to Rs 31,155 crore during the period against Rs 5,748 crore in the previous year. Tata Sons is joining Nagarjuna Group’s Rs 4,700 crore oil refinery project in Cudalore in Tamil Nadu. Both the companies have signed an investor agreement recently according to which Tata’s will take 26 per cent stake in Nagarjuna Oil Corporation with the total investment of Rs 350 crore while Nagarjuna Fertilizers and Chemicals will retain its 51 per cent share .The other partners in the project includes Sunterra with 10 per cent and remaining 13 per cent is shared between TIDCO, EXIM and Udhe, GmbH of Germany. Apollo Health Street
(AHS), a group company of Apollo Hospitals, has brought out Essar Oil has decided to
raise Rs 3,000 crore from abroad to fund the expansion of its Vadinar
refinery in External SectorThe Central government is confident of meeting the US $ 160 billion export target set for the fiscal provided the rupee continues at “present levels” against the dollar. The Commerce Department is holding a series of meetings with various export promotion councils to work out ways to enhance exports. During July 2007, exports have grown by almost 16 per cent in dollar terms over the corresponding period of the previous year, while in rupee terms the growth has been about 6 per cent. The Commerce Ministry has set up a target of exports worth US $ 300 billion by 2012-13 and imports of US $ 400 billion on the back of increased emphasis on manufacturing. Information TechnologyMumbai-based
BPO Firstsource Solutions Ltd had acquired MedAssist Holding Inc of the TCS
has won a deal worth Rs 574 crore spread across a period of 9 years from
telecom operator BSNL. The multi-year engagement involves setting up of
complex data networks across the vast BSNL footprint in north and west of Telecom
Subscriber
base of CDMA based technology in the country has surpassed 50 million
fixed and mobile device users only after four years the technology was
introduced here, the CDMA development group. It took more than ten years
for GSM to reach the same number. Private
telecom majors Reliance Communications and Tata Teleservices have been
found making false claims and drawing excess subsidy from the Universal
Service Obligation Fund for providing services in rural areas. Inspections
in various circles have revealed that their claims included urban lines,
known as Direct Exchange Lines (DELs), which fall within municipal limits
as rural lines. These were not eligible for subsidy.
*These statistics and the accompanying review are a product arising from the work undertaken under the joint ICICI research centre.org-EPWRF Data Base Project. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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